Uzbekistan — Buyuk kelajak bo'lgan Davlat!

This blog is dedicated to providing rigorous analysis of current events in Uzbekistan. Debate and criticism are welcome, please inform me if you would like to offer a correction.


1 Comment

The Failures of Cold War Attitudes in the Handling of the Ukrainian Crisis

The ceasefire agreement signed on September 5th is more maintained by a stalemate between Pro-Russian militias and Ukrainian security forces than by combatants actually obeying the truce. Largely due to the influx of Russian arms, armor, and troops, Pro-Russian forces have halted the Ukrainian advance. The Ukrainian forces have switched to defensive positions, columns of Russian tanks and APVs continue to move throughout the rebellious territory, and supplies for rebels reportedly flood through the uncontrolled border. Although such an obvious effect barely deserves mention, those who bear the main brunt of the War in Donbass are civilians; shelling continues to kill civilians and damage key infrastructure in Mariupol, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Despite the additional measures passed following its most recent summit in Wales, NATO can look upon the situation in Eastern Ukraine and say that it has lost. Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, has accepted a peace deal proposed by Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, that leaves the Donbass under the administration of Novorossiya, amounting to de facto Russian control. Russia still controls of Crimea and Sevastopol, amidst reports of human rights abuses against the Tatar community there. All of the goals of Western intervention in Ukraine have been lost: Civilian casualties remain high in the East, valuable infrastructure has been destroyed in Ukrainian’s most industrialized region, Ukraine remains corrupt and oligarchical, and Ukrainian sovereignty continues to be violated in both the Crimean peninsula and the Donbass. Mr. Putin’s goals in Ukraine have been accomplished, as the country is destabilized, Crimean and Sevastopol remain Russian possessions, and they control the Donbass through a combination of direct military force and a supplicant rebel administration. Looking back, NATO and the West can learn from its own mistakes that led to Mr. Putin’s strategic victory in Ukraine.
Continue reading


Leave a comment

The Aftermath of Military Intervention in Lesotho

Political crisis struck Lesotho again on August 30, 2014 when Prime Minister Thomas Thabane fled the country with reports of gunfire between the military and the police force in Maseru, the capital. With Thabane, military spokesmen, and opposition leaders all giving different accounts of the incident it can be hard to determine what actually happened. This article should help examine two of the most likely scenarios and provide details to determine which is the truth when more information comes out.
Continue reading


Leave a comment

The Implications of the Declarations of the Wales Summit

Today NATO released the series of declarations from its Wales Summit, which in addition to reiterating and reaffirming a lot of NATO commitments, contains a number of new developments within the alliance. For those of you who are fluent in bureaucratese and enjoy reading 11-page NATO documents the link is at the bottom of the post  If not, the key declarations are below:

5) Action Response Plans that direct immediate NATO action are updated to include information from new developments in the North Africa, West Asia, and Eastern Europe.

8) A combined land, maritime, air, and special forces group called the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) has been created. They are trained to be fully operational within days of deployment and have been specifically mentioned for use in the European periphery (say if Al Qaeda attacked in Libya or if Russia annexed Transdniestria).

Continue reading